The S&P BSE 500 index, which accounts for 94% market capitalisation of BSE listed companies, has gained 45% from its March 24 low. However, out of the BSE 500 index stocks, 225 have underperformed the index by gaining less than the broader index during this period.
Analysts say worst seems over but RBI's helping hand needed in form of rate cuts.
From the Sensex pack, State Bank of India, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel and Tata Motors were the major gainers. Power Grid and HDFC Bank were the laggards from the pack.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
Due to unseasonal rains, the second quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q2FY24) was disappointing for the room-air conditioner (RAC) segment and Q3FY23 was also slow. While general consumption demand was low in Q3FY24, the low base and the pent-up demand from the first half of financial year 2023-24 (H1FY24) seem to have driven an off-season demand for RACs.
'Investors should look to incrementally allocate towards equity from a medium-to-long term horizon.'
However, experts caution that investors should not expect the big returns they got from the sector between March and September 2020.
Have the markets already played out their dynamics before the economy has even properly taken off? Are we now destined for a period of mediocre returns despite a strong economy? asks Akash Prakash.
The chemicals sector's recovery could be delayed until FY25 if the current trends of weak demand and flat pricing continue. Following a subdued September quarter, the revenue and profit performance of listed chemicals companies are anticipated to fall short of initial expectations of an improvement. Despite some price stability, the demand trajectory remains uncertain.
Sensex has lost almost 1,500 points since December 31, 2014.
Equity benchmarks declined on Tuesday after a three-day rally, with the Sensex falling 359.33 points amid selling in index majors HDFC, Reliance Industries and Infosys. Investors were cautious ahead of release of GDP data, while a jump in crude oil prices also weighed on market sentiment, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex went lower by 359.33 points or 0.64 per cent to settle at 55,566.41.
'We like certain stocks from banking, insurance, retail, hospitals and capital goods.' 'Though some of these stocks may seem expensive, they will compound well over the long term, thus justifying their current multiples.'
Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) was one of the top Sensex gainers in trade on Monday, ending with gains of nearly 9 per cent. The stock has gained about 42 per cent year-to-date. For the March quarter, the company reported a revenue of Rs 12,000 crore, which was down 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) but up 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). The drop was on account of one-time arrears related to the Nagapattinam tariff bid competitive bidding (TBCB) project in Q4 FY23.
'The market recovery is fragile,' warns Raamdeo Agrawal, co-founder and joint managing director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Boosted by a strong recovery in 2009, Meanwhile, other leading indices in the region which witnessed a cumulative gain in the six-year period include China's SSE Composite Index (116.9 per cent) Kospi index of South Korea (104.4 per cent), Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (74.2 per cent), Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (58.7 per cent) and TSEC weighted index of Taiwan (32.3 per cent).
The Nifty, after dropping below the 6K mark on Tuesday, once again gained strength. The index, after flip-flopping between the zones ended finally at 5,999 - up 10 points. BSE market breadth was weak. Out of 3,085 stocks traded, 1,872 declined while 1,065 advanced.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their all-time high levels on Friday helped by impressive GDP data and fresh foreign fund inflows. Also, a rally in global markets added to the positive momentum in the equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 1,139.04 points to 73,639.34 -- its all-time peak -- in the late afternoon trade.
Strong MF investments, stemming of FII outflows and positive earnings in Q3 have helped market, say analysts.
The recent price correction in broader markets has hit cement companies hard. So far in the current month, smallcap firms like Visaka Industries, Andhra Cements NCL Industries, Sahyadri Industries, and KCP have lost 19.7 per cent, 14.3 per cent, 13.8 per cent, 13.5 per cent, and 11.5 per cent, respectively. On the contrary, largecap companies, while registering losses for the month, have seen a softer blow.
Container Corporation of India (Concor) has been the worst performer among major logistics & port stocks registering returns of about 4 per cent over the past three months as compared to 10-12 per cent for peers Gateway Distriparks and Adani Ports and SEZ. Uncertain outlook on the export-import (EXIM) trade front, market share loss, lack of progress on divestment, and weak June quarter results weighed on the stock. Volume and margin movement will be key triggers for the stock going ahead. As was the case in the previous quarter, margin performance was muted even in the June quarter. Operating profit in the quarter was down 17 per cent at Rs 391 crore missing estimates by over 15 per cent. Operating profit margins at 20.4 per cent, too, were down sharply by 350 basis points over the year-ago quarter.
There is little evidence that investments are picking up in the private sector or in infrastructure, says Abheek Barua
Automobile retail sales in India declined 9 per cent year-on-year in September amid a massive buildup of passenger vehicle inventory due to sluggish demand, dealer's body FADA said on Monday, urging original equipment manufacturers to take corrective steps. The overall registrations declined to 17,23,330 units last month from 18,99,192 units in September 2023, as most of the categories including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers witnessed a year-on-year (Y-O-Y) drop.
The hospitality industry has seen plenty of interest since the catastrophic impact of the pandemic, which led to losses in FY21. The hotel industry market cap has more than tripled since 2019 on the combination of a strong earnings rebound and positive surprises, as well as three recent listings. The industry has good tailwinds. The anticipation is, demand for rooms will outrun supply for a few years despite capacity expansions.
The Indian stock markets may have gained significantly in recent months but the country's fiscal position and uncertainty about global recovery still suggests a cautious approach towards equities, says Moody's.
Among the 11 equity sub-categories, thematic funds received the highest net inflows at Rs 9,017 crore, followed by smallcap funds at Rs 5,721 crore and flexicap funds at Rs 5,698 crore.
The gauge for the performance of informational technology (IT) stocks soared nearly 5 per cent-most in nearly three years-as growth worries eased following a robust order book posted by bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The Nifty IT index rose 4.5 per cent to close at 30,945. This was the biggest single-day gain since September 14, 2020. Industry titan TCS' shares rose 5 per cent to Rs 3,509.
Among the Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and Wipro were the major gainers. Nestle India, Asian Paints, JSW Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank were among the losers.
The stock of mall developer and commercial real estate major, The Phoenix Mills (Phoenix), is up 26 per cent since its business update in the third week of January. The gains came on strong December quarter performance and the consumption boost in the Budget which is expected to help the company sustain its growth trends.
The share of equity and investment funds in the total financial wealth of households increased by more than 50% between 2011-2012 and 2022-2023.
Even when large businesses said they were flying blind in mid-2020, the markets rallied and an incredible business boom followed. This is not to say that the markets will continue to rally and there is nothing to worry about, observes Debashis Basu.
State-run Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) reported a weak performance in the fourth quarter of FY24 (January-March 2024), and the turmoil in the energy market indicates it could endure another lacklustre quarter. The oil marketing company (OMC) reported an Ebitda of Rs 10,400 crore, down 27 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to weak reported gross refining margin (GRM) of $8.4 per barrel in Q4FY24, which was almost half the consensus expectation of $15 per barrel.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Since their highs in September, chemical stocks have underperformed the benchmarks and broader indices over the past month with larger players witnessing a 9-22 per cent fall during this period. Expectations of weak September quarter results amid high inventory, demand woes and weak realisations have led to the underperformance.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, is back on a growth path after six months of challenges as it posted better than expected earnings in the December quarter, brokerages said.
'I am optimistic about the Budget because of the fiscal discipline the government has committed to.'
Index majors NTPC, BHEL, Reliance Reliance Energy, Reliance Communications and HDFC, DLF, TCS, SBI and Bajaj Auto have zoomed.
From the pandemic shocks to state polls to global trends, a raft of sentiment drivers are expected to steer the Indian stock market in 2022 after a historic year of massive investor returns and milestones. The Union Budget, which will be closely watched for further reform moves, and quarterly earnings of corporates will be among the developments on investors' radar amid global central banks moving towards tighter interest regime in the wake of inflationary pressures. The year 2021 was rewarding in a big way for equity investors.
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank and Maruti were the major laggards. IndusInd Bank, ITC, Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India were among the winners.
'Only if the Budget springs some surprises we may see a halt in the selling.'
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